Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Egon von Greyerz - There Will Be a Time Without Money

The Market Crooners Are F.O.S. - The Market Ticker

From:

The Market-Ticker.org

https://market-ticker.org/

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=231730

The Market Crooners Are F.O.S.

"The S&P 500 is trading at historic highs on a cyclically-adjusted P/E basis, and well into "overvalued" territory even on simple trailing earnings. In fact on a CAPE basis the S&P is trading at a higher multiple than either 2000 or 2007!

In other words the entire market is priced for perfection -- higher earnings in the future, a softer currency and no increase in operating -- that means borrowing, given the last few years of history -- costs.

None of those things are likely to be true.

It is an effective impossibility that all of them will be true.

How overvalued is the market?  That depends on where you look in the market but 25% overvalued is in fact quite conservative."

Read more here:

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Joke Of The Week: Fed Says All Major US Banks PASS Stress Test.

ZeroHedge

FED STRESS TEST

Did They account for Brexit?!?!?

Markets are Reeling- Gold up $82.00+ as I write!




Brexit will shake up the EU and we will see calls from other states to break free from the EU and this will intensify capitol flows into the imaginary safe haven of the US Dollar.

Zero Hedge: It's All OVER- BREXIT - Britain Leaves EU


Update 12:15 PM - Turmoil...

Dow Futures are down 800 points from the post-close highs...


As Cable crashes to 30 year lows...

And Treasury yields crash to 2016 lows...
This is the 2nd biggest percentage drop in 10Y Yields ever...

Update 11:50 PM: And now comes the global market panic:
  • S&P 500 FUTURES TUMBLE 4.5 PERCENT, DOWN 99 POINTS
  • GOLD 1350
  • TREASURIES EXTEND GAIN; 10-YEAR YIELD DROPS BELOW 1.50%, 12 BPS FROM ALL TIME LOW
  • JAPAN'S 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO RECORD MINUS 0.215%
  • CIRCUIT BREAKER KICKS IN FOR NIKKEI FUTURES, TRADING HALTED FOR  10 MINS FOR JAPAN STOCK FUTURES
  • INDIA RBI SAID TO SELL DOLLARS TO CURB RUPEE'S DROP: TRADERS
  • EUR/CHF EXTENDS DROP BELOW 1.0700, FIRST TIME SINCE AUG. 2015
* * *
Update 11:38 PM: According to ITV, it's all over: Leave has won the referendum.

And BBC  and Sky both just called it too.  And now, the crying begins.

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Orlov: Negative Interest Rates Are Coming To America

From ClubOrlov

TUESDAY, JUNE 21, 2016

Dmitri Orlov


Well, that didn't take long! Negative Interest Rate Policy appears to be a gift that keeps on giving.

Just a little while ago I wrote that, in essence, if the Federal Reserve wants to keep the financial party going a little bit longer, it will have to continue lowering interest rates to below zero, as this is the only way to keep broke debtors alive and prevent the gigantic debt bubble from imploding. And now we find out that the Federal Reserve has resolved any legal impediments (such as the Federal Reserve Act) that have kept it from doing just that.

To recap, negative interest rates are a way to pay debtors to hold onto their debt instead of defaulting on it or repudiating it, thus preventing the debt pyramid from pancaking and taking the entire financial system with it. But this effect is temporary, for at least two reasons.

First, negative interest rates are essentially a tax on savings, causing people to think of other ways to store their wealth: land, precious metals, boxes of brass knobs, what have you. In due course, money stops being regarded as wherewithal and starts being regarded as an unreliable way to conduct business.

Second, with a gigantic bubble in bonds now decades old and bond yields now going negative, it is a matter of time before the realization hits that negative-yield bonds are not any sort of safe haven. Their value is now strictly a matter of their market valuation, which can plummet the moment people decide to dump them, with no floor anywhere. After all, there are plenty of other ways to lose money, and negative-yield bonds are nothing special.

And so, what the flashing neon words on the wall seem to be saying is this: negative interest rates are on the way throughout the “developed world.” In due course, they will demolish any remaining value of the US dollar (along with other NIRP currencies, such as the Euro and the Yen, to mention a few). Also in due course, they will blow up the bond bubble, and impair the debt financing function of Western and Japanese banks and corporations. And once this happens, obtaining new credit will become problematic.

In turn, this financial collapse will cause problems with letters of credit and bills of lading, meaning that cargo will not be loaded on ships, and the ships won't sail, leading to shortages of imports, disrupted global supply chains, triggering the next stage: commercial collapse.

That, in turn, will cause the tax base to shrivel and tax receipts to drop precipitously, impairing the ability of governments to continue to function. (Countries that insist on stationing their troops around the world for no good reason will be affected especially badly.) And this will bring on political collapse: governments will have a hard time pretending that they still exist, never mind being able to demonstrate that they still matter.

At which point you will suddenly find yourself asking this: How far along are social collapse and cultural collapse where I am? Do I know who my people are, and will they stand up for me, and I for them, or is it every man, woman and omni/multi/homo/trans/nonsexual part-unicorn for him/her/itself? This is not some theoretical question, but a perfectly practical one.

For example, last New Year's eve in Cologne, Germany, a mob of around a thousand male migrants attacked and molested a large number of women. There were some German men on hand; did they defend their women? No, they didn't. Or take the recent incident in Orlando. Conspiracy theories aside, there were over 100 people there against one gunman. Did any of them rush the gunman? The first 10 might have gotten shot; but the next 10 could have piled on, dropped him to the floor and stomped on his neck, ending the incident. But that didn't happen, did it? Where was their killer instinct?

By way of contrast, consider the incident that took place in Murmansk, Russia, where some migrants that had been expelled from Norway for bad behavior started behaving impudently toward some Russian women at a night club. The local lads didn't like that at all. According to some reports, the police showed up when the situation was already well in hand, and did their best to show that they are no slouches either. Result: 18 rapey migrants ended up in the hospital, 33 in detention, all begging to be sent home. If you are thinking that these people aren't quite civilized, then perhaps you are right, but we need to further process this thought.



Monday, April 11, 2016

Electoral Science: 2016 Presidential Election Winner will be a Republican

Washington's Blog
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/04/electoral-science-2016-presidential-election-winner-will-republican.html

Electoral Science: 2016 Presidential Election Winner will be a Republican

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/03/15/chart-shows-big-crash-ahead-rounded-top-pattern/

By Harry Dent, author of the new book, How to Survive (and Thrive) During the Great Gold Bust Ahead:

The story on Wall Street and CNBC continues to be that we’re in a correction and this is a buying opportunity. Even Warren Buffett joins the chorus of stock market cheerleaders for the skeptical public. Well, I agree with the skeptical public, not the experts here!
The bull market from early 2009 into May 2015 looks just like every bubble in history, and I’m getting one sign after the next that we did indeed peak last May. The dominant pattern in the stock market is the “rounded top” pattern:






After trading in a steep, bubble-like channel from late 2011 into late 2014, with only 10% maximum volatility top to bottom, the market finally lost its momentum… just as the Fed finished tapering its QE. That’s because the Fed was the primary driver in this stock bubble in the first place!
But the first sign that the bubble had indeed peaked was the break of that upward channel last August. Surprise, surprise! Without the Fed’s stimulus, stocks started to sputter out!
With that sign we can point to what now looks like a series of major tops, in one major index after the next, since late 2014:
  • Dow Transports, November 2014.
  • Dow Utilities, January 2015.
  • The DAX in Germany and the FTSE in the UK: April, 2015.
  • The Dow and S&P 500: May 2015.
  • The Shanghai Composite: June 2015.
  • The Nasdaq, Biotech and the Russell 2000: July 2015.
  • And finally, the Nikkei in Japan: August 2015.
The Shanghai Index crashed 45% in 2.5 months, similar to the Dow in late 1929 on its first 2.5-month wave down. That one was so obvious that when I said it was about to burst, it peaked that day and rolled over the next!


FED Passes On Rate Hike -March 2016 - Cites Global Risks

Marc Faber - China Will Grow At 4% To 6% Per Annum # 3

Marc Faber On Fed Negative Interest Rates # 2

Marc Faber On Central Banks 1