Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Spain Bailout Is Nothing But a Whole Lot Of Smoke. However, Where There Is Smoke...There Is Fire. Will Europe Burn?

More smoke and mirrors out of Euroland and their BS   EFSF bailout of Spain. Why isn't all well?
Euroland & Asia were up 2% overnight.  Well Wall Street sees what is happening and the Dow was
down 142.97 on monday.  Why do I make the claim that the Spain bailout is BS? Well....

Where is the money coming from?

The EFSF has about 200 billion euros of "pledges," not real capital, available as a firewall for  rescue of Euroland sovereigns. These pledges have come from the Euroland members, most of whom are broke! Spain, itself, has pledged 93 billion euros, Do you think they can bail themselves out?  What about Italy, they are the next sovereign inline in Euroland to default and they have pledged 139 billion euros to the EFSF fund.  Think they will throw those chips in the pot? I don't think so. And what happens when Italy defaults, and they will, the EFSF will be well beyond busted.  Think Germany wants to step into the void and add another 200 billion into the EFSF pot?

Do you really believe that Spain only needs $ 125 Billion in Euros?  HAH! Maybe 4, 5 or 10 times
that amount will be needed after Spaniards run to their banks and pull out all of the cash that they
can.  Can you say "bank runs?" Happened in Greece. Capitol fled and bank runs ensued.


What about Spanish bondholders?

They have been subordinated by the EFSF loans and will take a huge haircut like the Greek bond holders did earlier in the year. So you will see a huge rush to the exits in Spanish language bonds and
the purchase of Spanish bonds with a UK origin. That proved to be the safe place to be when the Greek language bonds disappeared.

What will the Italians do?  The Greeks, Irish & Belgians will want the same deal that Spain just got
and you have elections coming in Greece next week.

Who is next?  Looks like Italy is set to blow. Could be Cyprus or pick your favorite Eastern Euroland
wobbler.

So the real question is, when does Euroland (and the rest of the world)  realize that they have firmly struck the iceberg and the unsinkable ship known as EUROland starts quickly sinking?

All of that smoke they are blowing around Spain will be clearing in the next week or so and you will wake up and ...BOOM! Euroland won't be there anymore.

But they won't be able to contain the contagion in Euroland, and it IS coming here, there and everywhere.  Prepare yourselves my friends. Prepare, mentally, physically, emotionally &
monetarily.

Got physical gold? ......Or Silver?

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